Sears Has Finally Admitted That It’s Almost Dead

By Brian Sozzi

 Kudos to Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) for finally admitting what everyone already knew: it’s almost dead.

As TheStreet broke the news on Twitter Tuesday evening, Sears indicated in its newly filed annual report that “substantial doubt exists related to the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.” For those clickbait-loving headline writers out there with no financial services training: what Sears essentially said is that yes, it’s unsure if it could stay in business. Well, duh.

Sears’ cash position has melted from a high point of $1.7 billion for the 2009 calendar year to a mere $286 million to close out 2016. Revenue hasn’t grown since the credit boom lifted all ships in retail in 2006. The company hasn’t generated cash flow from its operations since 2006. “With negative news like this, it’s never good for confidence on the company,” Moody’s VP Christina Boni told TheStreet. Earlier this year, Moody’s downgraded its credit rating on Sears to Caa2 from Caa1. The downgrade reflected the accelerating negative sales performance of Sears’ business and risk of possible default.

There are a probably zillion other horrible sounding stats floating around in the Bloomberg terminal, but they all point to the same conclusion that the company is a dead man walking. The seriousness of Sears’ disclosure must not be downplayed. For if Sears raises more cash from high yield debt issuance (always a favorite move from retailers on the verge of dying), the market will still go back to the statement and reason Sears is still doomed. If Sears sellsmore assets such as land or the Kenmore brand, the market still won’t believe it can continue as a going concern.

In effect, Sears has admitted that its current asset base is worth less than its ridiculous comments made in recent years (you should see the zombie properties out there for sale in rural America). Moreover, it has admitted that no matter what it does, such as deliver on the $1 billion in recent cost cuts it has promised, the business will still likely die.

Believe it nor not, there are remaining delusional Sears fans out there that believe the company is sitting on amazing land holdings that are worth billions of dollars. Take this email I received on Tuesday from an analyst that works for a firm that holds Sears shares.

“I often read your articles with amusement because I think they are so far off. But after reading the last one on Target, had to at least respond. You are totally off and Target (TGT) setting up shop there is AWESOME news for the box at Penn Plaza and value, if only you looked at this on asset value and stopped looking at this from the traditional lens of a failed retailer which it surely is.”

I hear you, my man. Listen, I have covered the death of Sears going on 10 years now. The asset values have never lived up to their hype. Meanwhile, the operations have performed worse than anyone’s already low expectations. Bottom line: On March 21, 2017 the once-iconic Sears declared itself dead.

“The blood bath continues,” Corali Lopez-Castro, partner at KozyakTropin& Throckmorton’s bankruptcy and commercial litigation practice group, told TheStreet.

“Is this new? No,” Lopez-Castro said. “The fact that they put it into writing is scary.”

When asked when she expects we will see a bankruptcy filing from Sears, she said she’s not sure because it will avoid it at all costs.

“Depends, I would want to know what their vendors are insisting upon,” Lopez-Castro said. “When you go into bankruptcy, you lose control. And no company wants to lose control.”

For the record, Lopez-Castro doesn’t believe Sears can get out of its current dire situation without filing for insolvency. If, or when, the retailer does, she said it will likely tap Kirkland & Ellis for debtor counsel.

Shares of Sears finished the session lower by 12.3% to $7.98.

Read These or It’s Your Loss

A great day for drinking could be canceled: A South Philadelphia Cinco de Mayo festival has been canceled thanks to high tensions around Trump’s stance on immigration, The Christian Science Monitor reports. One should expect more of these cancellations to pop up in coming weeks. Sucks for beer makers such as Boston Beer Company (SAM) and liquor purveyor Diageo (DEO) .

Here’s your sign the tech bubble is overdue to pop: The salaries for those in the tech industry are getting out of hand, a factor that could keep profits below market expectations this year for startups and some less than top-tier publicly traded Nasdaq Composite names. Oddly, $250,000 entry-level coder jobs aren’t enough to cover the rent in the red-hot real estate market that is San Francisco, which is home to many tech companies. Zapier, a workflow automation company, said that it’s offering new hires in the Bay Area $10,000 to help them “delocate”, or move out of the paycheck-zapping Bay Area, reports The Christian Science Monitor.

Here’s how to play rising confidence in Asia: Business sentiment at Asia’s top companies advanced to its highest in nearly two years in the first quarter of 2017, according to a new survey from Thomson Reuters/INSEAD. TheStreet reveals 12 companies that could benefit from improving economic conditions in China.

Bye-bye Howard Schultz: Wednesday marks the final shareholder meeting (I am betting that at some point he will return, again) for Action Alerts PLUS charity portfolio holding Starbucks’ (SBUX) Howard Schultz as CEO. Obviously, Schultz has had one hell of a career. TheStreet runs down Schultz’ top accomplishments through the years.

Nike (NKE) shares get whacked on solid quarter: Shares of Nike are plunging on Wednesday following a slight quarterly sales miss and a plunge in gross profit margins. But, as TheStreet reports, Nike had one of the most upbeat conference calls in recent memory (at least the past year). With the company picking up the pace of innovation, the pullback may represent a good buying opportunity.

Click here for the original article.

Fashion brands — including several L.A. retailers — are dying off as consumer habits change

By Shan Li

American Apparel bit the dust. So did Nasty Gal. BCBG Max Azria filed for bankruptcy, along with teen retailer Wet Seal.

The fashion industry has long been a fickle beast, with trends rising and dying sometimes in the space of weeks. But changing consumer habits — including the emergence of e-commerce and the decline of traffic at many malls — is further shortening the life cycle for many fashion brands, analysts said.

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“Thirty years ago, you didn’t have to adapt as fast,” said Ron Friedman, a retail expert at accounting and advisory firm Marcum. “The retail environment is completely going through a revolution. Your normal brick-and-mortars are restructuring. Brands are going out of style.”

Faced with seismic changes, bankruptcies in the retail sector have been on the rise. In 2012, three retail companies with liabilities of $50 million or more filed for bankruptcy, according to a study by consulting firm AlixPartners. Eight retail bankruptcies occurred in 2014 — a number that had already been reached just six months into 2015, the last year analyzed in the study (although that still pales to 20 bankruptcies in 2008 during the height of the recession).

To be sure, once-hot brands faded away with nary a whimper before the digital age — Robert Hall in the 1970s, Rogers Peet in the 1980s and Merry-Go-Round in the 1990s. But the Web has been a double-edged sword for fashion brands, both a way to reach a worldwide audience for their wares, while also serving as a giant emporium where shoppers can click to a rival site in seconds.

“There’s a perfect storm now,” said Corali Lopez-Castro, a partner at KozyakTropin& Throckmorton who has handled retail bankruptcies. “I don’t know if many retailers can adjust.”

Some retailers have stumbled, including a number of Southern California brands. It’s a region that has already been hard-hit by a decline in garment manufacturing — and as home for many casual brands, is especially susceptible to the rise of fast fashion.

BCBG admits its failure to harness the Web contributed to its downfall. The Los Angeles company said e-commerce sales made up only “a small proportion” of its overall business, according to bankruptcy documents.

The rise of fast-fashion rivals has also shortened the attention span of consumers. Before H&M and Zara came on the scene, retailers that had a lackluster season could course-correct a few months down the line — knowing shoppers would likely come back to browse while strolling their local mall. But now shoppers can hop online or go to fast-fashion stores that introduce fresh fashions on a weekly basis.

“If you are a fashion apparel retailer, you have to have a steady flow of newness,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. “You can’t just regurgitate what was hot last year.”

At the same time, consumers are spending a diminishing chunk of their income on clothing, opting to shell out for electronics or experiences instead. Less than 4% of every dollar is now spent on buying apparel, Johnson said, compared to 8% in the mid-1990s and 20% a century ago.

The off-shoring of manufacturing has dramatically reduced the price of clothing over the last few decades. That has wounded brands catering to young shoppers. Irvine-based Wet Seal, for example, is preparing to close its stores after filing for bankruptcy for the second time in February.

Aside from premium denim, Southern California brands tend to offer more casual wear, compared to designer-heavy New York, Johnson said. Shoppers therefore find it easier to switch to buying via e-commerce sites such as Amazon or in fast-fashion stores — one reason so many local firms have faltered in recent years.

“There is virtually nothing that places like Wet Seal or American Apparel sell that you can’t get on the Internet for a lower price,” Johnson said. “There is nothing that distinguishes it.”

New fashion brands are also finding an increasingly tough climb. They can reach potential customers directly on social media and sell product from their own websites. But it requires heavy investment to get eyeballs — especially when companies are trying to attract investors by demonstrating fast growth, analysts said. Nasty Gal, a once-hot Los Angeles firm that sold its intellectual property for $20 million after filing for bankruptcy in November, saw its sales plunge after it ran out of money to invest in online marketing and advertising.

Friedman, who has consulted for fashion brands for decades, now tells new businesses that they need starting capital between $500,000 to a $1 million. That’s compared to $200,000 to $300,000 about a decade ago, he said.

“Before, you could go to Fred Segal and get your product on the floor, or go to Bloomingdale’s headquarters and get it on their floor,” Friedman said. “Today, you have got to go to the Internet and sell direct to consumers, and the cost can be very high.”

That cost means that fashion brands can burn through cash quickly, which can be a death knell for those without fresh investment or brisk sales.

After changes to the U.S. bankruptcy code in 2005, retailers that are forced to file for bankruptcy protection are also less likely to survive. Those changes shortened the time frame that retailers have to get approval for restructuring or a sale; companies only have 210 days to decide whether to hold onto or get rid of store leases.

Brick-and-mortar retailers, especially, have been hit hard. Instead of getting out of unprofitable leases and emerging from bankruptcy as a leaner business, many end up going out of business entirely and selling their brand.

That has led to an environment in which only the savviest company, especially those with physical stores, can survive.

“It’s the law of nature,” Johnson said. “Whether it’s an animal species or a retailer, the weakest players get winnowed out.”

Since 2005, 55% of retailers that have filed have ultimately liquidated their business, compared to 5% of bankruptcies in other industries, the AlixPartners survey said.

This year is expected to be another big year for bankruptcies.

“You’re going to see one every single month in 2017,” said Lopez-Castro. “Once you lose a customer, it’s very hard to get that customer back.”

Click here for the original article.

Fossil Is Still Making Billions of Dollars Selling Watches, but Its Stock Looks Like a Broken Clock

By Lindsay Rittenhouse

 Fossil Group (FOSL) may not be dying like Sears (SHLD) undoubtedly is, but it definitely appears to be struggling right along with nearly every other retailer.

As TheStreet‘s sister publication The Deal reported, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Fossil’s secured credit facilities on Wednesday, citing weakness in its traditional watch business. Fossil holds about $636 million in debt. A month ago, Fossil reported a 7% slip in fourth quarter sales, driven by declines in leather accessories and traditional watches.

CEO KostaKartsotis said fourth quarter sales, although weak, were driven by the Fossil brand and smartwatches it makes via a license arrangement with Michael Kors (KORS) .

To offset slowing traditional watch sales, Fossil said that it was making a “big bet” on tech wear, adding some 300 new stock-keeping units in the second half of the year. In 2016, Fossil launched 100 wearables for Alphabet‘s Google (GOOGL) Android Wear 2.0 platform.

“Fossil brand’s smartwatches – both its touchscreens and its hybrid smartwatches – are selling incredibly well,” a Fossil spokeswoman told TheStreet.

A host of groups aren’t so sure of that.

“While pivoting into wearables could be the only option (traditional watches down double-digits while wearables up double-digits), competition is growing quickly in a market driven by a vendor push rather than consumer demand,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Anna Andreeva. The analyst is particularly concerned about the erosion in Fossil’s profitability metrics.

In the U.S., Andreeva points out, Fossil lost money in the U.S. last year. Pre-tax profit margins in the U.S. have plunged 1,500 basis points over the past two years.

“Overall as a segment, (wearables) is not one that has seen a huge growth,” says Melissa Gonzalez, CEO and founder of experiential retail pop-up shop agency The Lion’esque Group.

Gonzalez thinks Fossil needs to figure out how to “differentiate themselves”, and she’s not sure wearables can be its “game changing” product given that Apple (AAPL) dominates the category.

Moody’s said in its downgrade that Fossil will have a hard time competing against Fitbit (FIT) . That’s alarming, considering Fitbit issued preliminary guidance on Jan. 30 that warned investors it will probably not meet fourth quarter revenue expectations due to a drop in demand for its fitness trackers.

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The unfortunate reality may just be that Fossil’s products fall into a grey area.

Consumers either are young millennials searching for a bargain fitness tracker or older, wealthier individuals with large disposable incomes, who “if they can afford luxury,” they will buy a Rolex. Fossil doesn’t fit into either category, said Corali Lopez-Castro, partner at KozyakTropin& Throckmorton’s bankruptcy and commercial litigation practice group.

Lopez-Castro noted that brand loyalty doesn’t exist anymore, a serious problem for Fossil. “I remember when every young girl had a Coach (COH) purse,” Lopez-Castro said. “All of a sudden they decided it wasn’t cool anymore.”

Lopez-Castro said she believes the consumers who want a smartwatch, won’t care if they’re designed by Fossil – they’ll just buy the Apple Watch because it offers the best technology.

Meanwhile, major department store closures from Macy‘s (M) and J.C. Penney (JCP) are only turning consumers further away from malls and Fossil, where the brand dominates the watch displays.

“The retail industry as a whole is undergoing challenges,” the Fossil spokeswoman said. “However, we feel our investments in omni-channel and our connected strategy well position us for the future.”

Kartsotis said on the fourth quarter earnings call that Fossil’s “e-commerce business is thriving,” despite it being a small portion of its retail business. Still, dwindling mall traffic contributed to a 7% slip in Fossil’s comparable store sales.

For now, Fossil’s stock could keep winding down as it works through its challenges.

Click here for the original article.

Health Care Bankruptcy: Not An Ordinary Chapter 11 Case

Various factors including increased competition and reimbursement landscape challenges led hospitals and other health care providers to file for bankruptcy over the last few years. For the remainder of 2017, due in part to the current uncertainty in the health care industry and its legislative oversight, more financially distressed providers are considering Chapter 11 bankruptcy to effectuate closures, consolidation, restructurings and related transactions.

Expanding the Role Call in Health Care Provider Chapter 11

The Patient Care Ombudsman

Health care provider bankruptcies differ from garden-variety Chapter 11 cases, as they address unique issues regarding patients’ care, record keeping and privacy rights, at times with intermediary oversight by a court-appointed patient care ombudsman. The Bankruptcy Code requires the appointment of a patient care ombudsman within 30 days after commencement of a “health care business” bankruptcy case, unless the court finds that an ombudsman is not necessary for the protection of the patients under the circumstances of the case. The ombudsman must report every 60 days regarding the quality of patient care. The fees of the ombudsman are paid by the bankruptcy estate and are entitled to administrative expense priority.

Government and Private Insurance Company Payers

Health care provider bankruptcies are complicated by disputed bankruptcy court jurisdiction over the provider reimbursements and payer claims reconciliation process relative to exhaustion of administrative remedies, the automatic stay, and setoff and recoupment rights, as well as disputing the treatment of provider agreement obligations in free and clear sales and/or assignments of executory contracts under Sections 363(f) and 365 of the Bankruptcy Code.

Pledging Government Receivables as Collateral

Many times receivables owed from a payer are pledged as collateral to a provider’s lender, which again raises issues in the government payer context. Exercising remedies on government accounts receivable is complicated because the receivables are subject to related federal and state “anti-assignment rules” affecting Medicare and Medicaid health care programs. These anti-assignment rules require that Medicare and Medicaid payments be made only to a deposit account over which the health care provider has sole control. Any attempt by a provider to assign these receivables in violation of the anti-assignment rules may result in the termination of the provider agreement.

However, parties have enacted a successful workaround mechanism in which the government receivables are deposited directly into a provider’s bank account, and then the government payments are subsequently swept daily into a second deposit account under the lender’s control. Upon a provider bankruptcy filing, however, a lender must stop the automatic sweep of cash from the provider’s account due to the Bankruptcy Code’s automatic stay. As such, it is advisable for Chapter 11 providers and their lender to enter into cash collateral agreements subject to bankruptcy court approval, which typically provide for adequate protection payments and a negotiated budget.

A Fight Over Where to Fight with Payers

Outside of bankruptcy, the federal government and its contractors routinely withhold Medicare and Medicaid payments upon determining a health care provider has been overpaid on a prior unrelated reimbursement claim. Under 42 U.S.C. § 405(h), federal courts may take jurisdiction over Medicare disputes only after a party exhausts applicable appeal processes within the Medicare system. The federal courts are split regarding the plain language of 42 U.S.C. § 405(h), as it relates to bankruptcy courts’ jurisdictional limitations, thus impacting a provider’s protections in Chapter 11. Some circuit courts have determined that a requirement to exhaust administrative remedies is inapplicable in bankruptcy cases; others have found that exhaustion of administrative remedies applies even in federal bankruptcy court. A provider in bankruptcy currently has a petition on file with the U.S. Supreme Court for certiorari review of this issue.

Forum disputes also exist between network providers in bankruptcy and their private insurance payers, as most contracts contain arbitration clauses and administrative remedies provisions. There is some disagreement by courts as to the enforcement of arbitration clauses in this context.

Payer Take-Backs as Setoffs or Recoupment

The government system regarding Medicare and Medicaid payments differs meaningfully from private insurance company payments. Government payments to providers are made on an interim basis under a prospective reimbursement system, which results in payments before a determination that the services rendered are covered and costs are reasonable. Due in large part to the prospective payment system, more courts than not find that the subsequent take-backs are recoupments as part of a single, integrated and ongoing transaction between the government and the payer.

In the private insurance company setting, payments are not made on a prospective reimbursement system where claims are vetted and approved prior to initial payment. Yet, there are instances of payment error which trigger requests for overpayment reimbursement. Many insurance company payers resort to unilateral take-backs where they apply their asserted reimbursement overpayment against a more recent valid claim of an unrelated patient. The private insurance company payers seemingly have a weaker argument to support that these take-backs are recoupments instead of a setoff.

This distinction between setoff and recoupment is important because setoffs are subject to the Bankruptcy Code’s automatic stay, and generally setoff obligations fall within claims that can be sold free and clear in bankruptcy sales merely attaching to sale proceeds, but not applied against a bankruptcy purchaser of a provider license. In addition, setoff may not be permitted by the court. Recoupments, however, are not subject to the automatic stay nor the distribution scheme for creditors, and may not be discharged in a bankruptcy sale or plan confirmation. However, payer recoupment actions remain an equitable defense remedy subject to judicial determination upon challenge by a provider.

A Fight Worth Fighting For

The relationship between the Medicare/Medicaid programs and providers is captured in a written provider agreement, which afford providers a license/number to participate in the Medicare/Medicaid prospective reimbursement program. A dispute arises when the provider seeks a sale of assets in bankruptcy, including the provider number. The government’s general position in bankruptcy is that the provider agreement is an executory contract subject to the Bankruptcy Code requirement that its obligations (the overpayments) must be cured before it can be assumed and assigned to a purchaser/assignee.

Providers and purchasers tend to argue that the provider licenses/numbers are not executory contracts and are licenses/assets that can be sold free and clear of the overpayment obligations existing at the time of the sale. The general rationale is that the provider license is not a negotiated agreement like most contracts, but is a regulatory form application that is completed and approved by the government. Also, a ruling requiring a cure prior to assumption/assignment or of potential successor liability either would block the sale or greatly diminish the value of the assets, impeding an ability to maximize value for case constituents.

However, even if the provider license is not deemed to be an executory contract, if the overpayment recovery actions are deemed a recoupment, then more cases than not hold that a 363 sale still could not extinguish that claim against the purchaser. Because of this, many times settlements are reached and workarounds are accomplished, such as setting up a portion of the sale proceeds in escrow or setting up a waterfall overpayment recovery scheme from the sale proceeds, other bankruptcy estate funds on hand and then perhaps a budgeted annual-capped amount from the purchaser.

Conclusion

Health care provider Chapter 11 cases are multifaceted and include additional parties and issues than in standard Chapter 11 cases. A financially distressed provider considering Chapter 11 is best served to find a properly vetted stalking horse deal partner prior to filing the case and engage in meaningful discussions with their payers and lenders, if possible.

Providers should aim to move the case to the sale and Chapter 11 plan process expeditiously where the jurisdictional, license and setoff-recoupment issues can be teed up and addressed in short order, during which time patient care can be properly maintained pending litigation and further settlement discussions with the creditor constituents.

—By David A. Samole, Kozyak Tropin & Throckmorton LLP

David Samole is a partner at Kozyak Tropin in Miami. He handles an array of corporate bankruptcy matters, as well as litigation on behalf of healthcare providers.

The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the firm, its clients, or Portfolio Media Inc., or any of its or their respective affiliates. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.

 Click here for the original article.

‘Year of Retail Bankruptcies’ Looms

By Rebecca McClay

In a retail environment where consumers are increasingly shifting their shopping habits online, companies that depend on actual foot traffic are yielding an avalanche of dismal earnings reports.

This year could easily shape up to be “the year of retail bankruptcies,” Cori Lopez-Castro, partner with KozyakTropin Throckmorton, a bankruptcy firm, told TheStreet. Stores like The Limited Stores, a women’s apparel retailer that closed 250 locations, and Wet Seal, a mall-based women’s clothing chain, have already filed for Chapter 11.

Most recently, Gordmans Stores Inc. (GMAN​), a discount department store chain based in Omaha, Nebraska, has been losing sales to the internet, and filed for bankruptcy March 13 with a plan to liquidate all of its stores. Gordmans employs 5,100 people in more than 100 stores.

And HHGregg Inc. is reportedly considering following suit as early as this month, according to a Bloomberg report. HHGregg stock was quietly delisted from the New York Stock Exchange this week. Shares now trade on the OTC under “HGGG.” (See also, Bankruptcy Looms for HHGregg)

Many other retailers, with a slew of recent investment downgrades, could also be heading down the bankruptcy road. This 2017 list of troubled retailers, so far, also includes Macy’s Inc. (M), Neiman Marcus Group and Charlotte Russe Inc., all three of which received downgrades from S&P Global Ratings in the past month, according to TheStreet. The firm cut Macy’s to BBB- from BBB, a rating just above junk bonds, after the company reported sluggish holiday sales.(See also, Retails Face Rising Shutdowns as Losses Mount)

S&P Global downgraded Neiman Marcus to CCC+ from B- saying the department store’s “capital structure is unsustainable over the long term. Trends such as weak mall traffic, a highly promotional retail apparel environment and cautious consumer spending continue to weigh heavily on Neiman Marcus.”

And private mall chain Charlotte Russe’s rating was lowered to CCC+ from B- with S&P saying a “lack of prospects for a strong, sustained rebound could lead the company to pursue a potential debt restructuring.”

Click here for the original article.

themorningcall

How teens and smartphones are killing teen-fashion retailers

By Suzette Parmley

 Mipri Haye, a high school junior, is on Instagram and Snapshot daily, showing off her latest outfits to her girlfriends.

She also shares where she got those clothes: Forever 21, H&M, and Charlotte Russe often top her list.

“I take pictures of myself trying on new things, post them, and see what my friends think,” said Haye on a recent Friday as she shopped with her mother, Capri Haye, inside Francesca’s at Cherry Hill Mall in the New Jersey portion of suburban Philadelphia.

Retail experts say such prolific use of social media by Haye and others is driving the rapid success of some teen retailers, and causing the quick demise of others. Teen brands have also been among the slowest to close their brick-and-mortar stores and grow their websites.

In the last 18 months, Aeropostale, with 800 stores, Pacific Sunwear, with nearly 600 stores, and American Apparel, with 273 stores, have all filed for bankruptcy. (An ownership group stepped up in September 2016 to buy Aeropostale for $243 million at auction; the new owners plan to reopen its 500 stores across the country this year.)

Wet Seal, a California teen-oriented brand with 171 stores, filed for Chapter 11 last month. It specialized in selling clothing and accessories to young women.

Others, such as Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters, are struggling. On a recent Friday at Cherry Hill Mall, neither store attracted much foot traffic from 7 to the 9:30 p.m. closing.

E-commerce sales continue to grow at about 15 percent a year, noted Garrick Brown, vice president, retail research of the Americas for Cushman & Wakefield. And online retailers keep gaining market share.

But while most have been focused on millennial shopping habits, “what has been missed . is the impact of the next generation: Generation Z,” Brown said. “This generation (the first to have grown up completely on smartphones) are poised to put that growth to shame.”

In 2015, Forrester Research reported that, despite low incomes due to their youth, Generation Z consumers spent 8.75 percent of their total income online. This compared with 5.33 percent for millennials and 3.85 percent for Generation X.

“The entire apparel marketplace has been sharply impacted by the encroachment of Amazon into the fashion arena and by the general rise of e-commerce,” Brown said. “But that impact has been sharpest on teen apparel because their core consumer, Generation Z, have been even stronger users.”

Combined with retailers being slow to develop an in-store/online sales strategy, “this is why there has been a wave of teen apparel retail failures that is nowhere near finished,” he said.

Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics Inc., which provides investors with research on retail, cited four factors in teen fashion’s fall:

-Teen apparel retailers are almost exclusively located in malls (Aero, Wet Seal, PacSun, American Eagle, Abercrombie, Tilly’s, Zumiez). “Consumers are venturing to (mediocre, under-performing) malls at a rapidly declining rate. Teen chains are not alone in their inability to make up for lost foot traffic with rapid e-commerce growth.”

-Social media have changed what teen consumers focus on. “Teens are more interested in dining out with friends, attending shows, concerts, sporting events that they can post to social media than they are about their wardrobes.”

-Teens are very fashion fickle, and no overarching fashion trends are driving sales. “Denim is a constant but what else?” said Perkins.

-The transition to mobile spending and rapid delivery “is happening so rapidly that most retailers cannot keep pace with it,” he said. “Amazon is eating everyone’s lunch.”

Compared with all of retail, the teen category has under-performed every quarter since 2008, according to Retail Metrics.

A similar pattern holds with earnings growth. Teen earnings are far more volatile than the industry’s and have under-performed in 13 of the last 16 quarters.

Corali Lopez-Castro, a Miami-based lawyer, has handled retail bankruptcies and regularly represents landlords. She said “fast fashion” retailers, such as Zara out of Spain, which sell a lot of volume and change offerings daily, were altering the rules of the game. Zara will debut a store at Cherry Hill Mall in fall 2017.

“Zara changes the trends all the time,” Lopez-Castro said. “Teens will go to the store here (in Miami) just to see what’s new. There’s often a group waiting outside for the store to open. It has great price points and a very hip web presence.”

With teens, “status is less important,” Lopez-Castro said. “Today it’s more about what’s unique.”

Yung Girbaud, 22, who stopped going to malls when he was 19, represents the malls’ greatest fear.

He was at another Philly-area mall on a recent weekend to hang out with his buddies and “pick up girls,” he said sheepishly. His posse was sitting on sample massage chairs in front of Aeropostale, and never ventured into the store.

Girbaud, of Hamilton, N.J., said he does virtually all of his shopping online from such websites as Neiman Marcus, Barney’s, and Saks Fifth Avenue.

Mall offerings are “so vanilla,” he said. “When I see people walking around the mall, they are all wearing the same clothes.

“I like finding stuff on eBay – clothes and accessories that no one else is wearing,” he said, citing a Christian Dior wallet from eBay.

Girbaud then pulled out his iPhone to show off what he wore while recently visiting a friend in New York: a headband with a matching blue shirt/pants outfit. “Everything you can’t find in a mall,” he said.

Click here for the original article.

How teens and smartphones are killing teen-fashion retailers

Mipri Haye, a high school junior, is on Instagram and Snapchat daily, showing off her latest outfits to her girlfriends.

She also shares where she got those clothes: Forever 21, H&M, and Charlotte Russe often top her list.

“I take pictures of myself trying on new things, post them, and see what my friends think,” said Haye on a recent Friday as she shopped with her mother, Capri Haye, inside Francesca’s at Cherry Hill Mall in the New Jersey portion of suburban Philadelphia.

Retail experts say such prolific use of social media by Haye and others is driving the rapid success of some teen retailers, and causing the quick demise of others. Teen brands have also been among the slowest to close their brick-and-mortar stores and grow their websites.

In the last 18 months, Aeropostale, with 800 stores, Pacific Sunwear, with nearly 600 stores, and American Apparel, with 273 stores, have all filed for bankruptcy. (An ownership group stepped up in September 2016 to buy Aeropostale for $243 million at auction; the new owners plan to reopen its 500 stores across the country this year.)

Wet Seal, a California teen-oriented brand with 171 stores, filed for Chapter 11 last month. It specialized in selling clothing and accessories to young women.Others, such as Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters, are struggling. On a recent Friday at Cherry Hill Mall, neither store attracted much foot traffic from 7 to the 9:30 p.m. closing.

E-commerce sales continue to grow at about 15 percent a year, noted Garrick Brown, vice president, retail research of the Americas for Cushman & Wakefield. And online retailers keep gaining market share.

But while most have been focused on millennial shopping habits, “what has been missed … is the impact of the next generation: Generation Z,” Brown said. “This generation (the first to have grown up completely on smartphones) are poised to put that growth to shame.”

In 2015, Forrester Research reported that, despite low incomes due to their youth, Generation Z consumers spent 8.75 percent of their total income online. This compared with 5.33 percent for millennials and 3.85 percent for Generation X.

“The entire apparel marketplace has been sharply impacted by the encroachment of Amazon into the fashion arena and by the general rise of e-commerce,” Brown said. “But that impact has been sharpest on teen apparel because their core consumer, Generation Z, have been even stronger users.”

Combined with retailers being slow to develop an in-store/online sales strategy, “this is why there has been a wave of teen apparel retail failures that is nowhere near finished,” he said.

Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics Inc., which provides investors with research on retail, cited four factors in teen fashion’s fall:

—Teen apparel retailers are almost exclusively located in malls (Aero, Wet Seal, PacSun, American Eagle, Abercrombie, Tilly’s, Zumiez). “Consumers are venturing to (mediocre, under-performing) malls at a rapidly declining rate. Teen chains are not alone in their inability to make up for lost foot traffic with rapid e-commerce growth.”

—Social media have changed what teen consumers focus on. “Teens are more interested in dining out with friends, attending shows, concerts, sporting events that they can post to social media than they are about their wardrobes.”

—Teens are very fashion fickle, and no overarching fashion trends are driving sales. “Denim is a constant but what else?” said Perkins.

—The transition to mobile spending and rapid delivery “is happening so rapidly that most retailers cannot keep pace with it,” he said. “Amazon is eating everyone’s lunch.”

Compared with all of retail, the teen category has under-performed every quarter since 2008, according to Retail Metrics.

A similar pattern holds with earnings growth. Teen earnings are far more volatile than the industry’s and have under-performed in 13 of the last 16 quarters.

Corali Lopez-Castro, a Miami-based lawyer, has handled retail bankruptcies and regularly represents landlords. She said “fast fashion” retailers, such as Zara out of Spain, which sell a lot of volume and change offerings daily, were altering the rules of the game. Zara will debut a store at Cherry Hill Mall in fall 2017.

“Zara changes the trends all the time,” Lopez-Castro said. “Teens will go to the store here (in Miami) just to see what’s new. There’s often a group waiting outside for the store to open. It has great price points and a very hip web presence.”

With teens, “status is less important,” Lopez-Castro said. “Today it’s more about what’s unique.”

Yung Girbaud, 22, who stopped going to malls when he was 19, represents the malls’ greatest fear.

He was at another Philly-area mall on a recent weekend to hang out with his buddies and “pick up girls,” he said sheepishly. His posse was sitting on sample massage chairs in front of Aeropostale, and never ventured into the store.

Girbaud, of Hamilton, N.J., said he does virtually all of his shopping online from such websites as Neiman Marcus, Barney’s, and Saks Fifth Avenue.

Mall offerings are “so vanilla,” he said. “When I see people walking around the mall, they are all wearing the same clothes.

“I like finding stuff on eBay — clothes and accessories that no one else is wearing,” he said, citing a Christian Dior wallet from eBay.

Girbaud then pulled out his iPhone to show off what he wore while recently visiting a friend in New York: a headband with a matching blue shirt/pants outfit. “Everythingyoucan’tfind in a mall,” he said.

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People on the move

By: Cindy Kent

Law

KozyakTropin& Throckmorton announced that partner Javier A. Lopez has been named a recipient of the Hispanic National Bar Association’s Top Lawyers Under 40 award. Lopez will be honored during the HNBA Corporate Counsel Conference in Miami on March 31.

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Crain'sAustin

Teen fashion retailers struggle to keep up

By: Mary Ann Azevedo

Teen apparel retailer Aeropostale’s 2016 bankruptcy filing wasn’t a surprise considering the company had been struggling for years.

About a month before the filing, Aeropostale’s shares were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange after sliding to a mere 15 cents, down dramatically from a peak of $32.24 in 2010.

The chain joined a slew of other teen-focused clothing stores – including Delia’s, Pacific Sunwear, Wet Seal and American Apparel – that in recent years have been forced to collectively close thousands of stores as they worked to reorganize in the face of declining sales.

Those that are still operating are working to stay fresh to teen consumers so that they too don’t have to go down the bankruptcy trail.

There are a variety of theories as to why this sector is taking such a hit. What comes up repeatedly is the popularity of social media and its impact on the shopping behavior of young consumers.

Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for The NPD Group Inc., says teens these days are generally not purchasing product at the same rate they used to.

“Their priorities are shifting,” he said. “It’s now more important to do things than buy things. It’s more important for them to document themselves doing things and collect memories than building a wardrobe.”

Kozyak Tropin & Throckmorton shareholder Corali Lopez-Castro agrees that social media and online shopping has had an impact on teens’ spending habits – but in another way. They are simply becoming more fickle.

She cites the advent of social networking and smartphones, and the fact that teens are typically early and avid adopters of new platforms and technologies. They are able to keep up with fads and trends more immediately, and many stores just can’t keep up.

“Brands can quickly fall from favor as others rise,” says Lopez-Castro, who has recently handled such a bankruptcy case. “Those that are struggling have not been able to keep up with changing trends as teens are becoming much more sophisticated consumers with their taste changing very quickly.”

Also, as more people opt to shop online and draw inspiration from fashion bloggers, there is a lack of foot traffic in traditional malls and shopping centers.

“Stores these days have to be able to address fashion trends more quickly to keep the consumer coming back again and again,” she says. “And their online presence has to be an inviting experience. Websites have to be young and fresh so that these teens want to go online and order the stuff they have. Girls are getting their looks from following fashion editors, models and bloggers. This is the new consumer.”

Tuna Amobi, research analyst at CFRA, believes the teen retail space has undergone a secular shift that is manifested in the way that consumers are purchasing.​

Competition from ecommerce giant Amazon and fast-fashion retailers such as H&M, Zara and Forever 21 have made the space a challenging one.​

“Five to seven years ago, teen apparel was geared toward logo-type wear and the cycles of merchandising were much longer,” Amobi says. “New entrants have provided a new way of merchandising and design that is much more fast-paced.”​

On top of that, he agrees with Cohen that teens in general are more pragmatic about where they spend their money.​

Many of these retailers, Amobi points out, were overburdened by debt. Investor efforts to resuscitate the companies were not successful.​

“They underestimated that trends would happen as fast as they were,” he says. “Meanwhile, surviving retailers have tried to adapt to these trends to varying degrees of success.”

Abercrombie, for example, tried to significantly streamline its operations and revamp its merchandising strategy to adapt to what the more successful companies are doing.

In general, surviving retailers are focused more on international growth in Asia and Europe.

“It’s clear that the U.S. market was oversaturated,” Amobi says. “Today there’s a lot more nimbleness.”

Cohen also cites a domino effect.

He believes that when one or two retailers in a space file bankruptcy, all of a sudden it’s seen as not such a bad thing to do if a store has been contemplating it.

“Some stores take advantage of timing,” Cohen says. “If you’re not the first, your stock doesn’t take as big of a hit and your credibility as a leader doesn’t look as negative. Misery loves company. So some companies take this opportunity to regroup and have it not be as painful as if they were doing it on their own.”

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A Memorable 2017, But Not in a Good Way; Why It Could Be Year of Retail Bankruptcies

By Kaya Yurieff

The list of troubled retailers seems to be getting longer by the day.

S&P Global Ratings recently downgraded four retailers: department store operator Macy’s (M) , luxury retailer Neiman Marcus, young-women’s fashion chain Charlotte Russe and thrift store operator Evergreen AcqCo1.

Macy’s was cut to BBB- from BBB last week, which is one level above junk bonds. The ratings change comes after the company reported weak fourth-quarter results, partially due to soft holiday sales.

“The downgrade reflects our view of the company’s weakened operating performance and competitive standing given the ongoing industry challenges, such as sustained low-customer traffic, increased price transparency and unrelenting competition from online, fast-fashion and off-price retailers,” credit analyst Helena Song said.

Fast fashion, from retailers such as H&MTopshop and Zara, has disrupted the historical supply chain model as it emphasizes getting new trends out into the market quickly and cheaply.

“Fast-fashion retailers have thus been able to flood the market with new, inexpensive styles and have been able to react quicker to changes in consumer preferences,” Credit Suisse analysts said in a recent note.

“Zara is the star,” said Cori Lopez-Castro, partner at KozyakTropin& Throckmorton. The retailer is able to change its merchandise very quickly and customers keep coming back to the store because they know they’ll see something new. “No one is going into Macy’s to see what’s new.”

Off-price retailers have also become more popular as consumers seek bargains and forego department stores and malls.

Standard & Poor’s also downgraded department store Neiman Marcus to CCC+ from B- with a negative outlook this month. “The company’s capital structure is unsustainable over the long term. Trends such as weak mall traffic, highly promotional retail apparel environment and cautious consumer spending continue to weigh heavily on Neiman Marcus’ operating performance and EBITDA,” Song said.

Mall-based Charlotte Russe is also struggling. S&P lowered Charlotte Russe’s rating to CCC+ from B- with a negative outlook earlier this month. “The company’s suppressed debt trading prices and lack of prospects for a strong, sustained rebound could lead the company to pursue a potential debt restructuring,” said credit analyst Andrew Bove. “The apparel industry will only be more challenged over the next 12 months to 24 months.”

Teen retailers have especially struggled as evidenced by a string of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection filings from companies such as American ApparelAeropostaleWetsealQuicksilver and PacSun.

“Kids moved away from those brands. It wasn’t popular on social media,” Lopez-Castro said, adding that the aforementioned companies also didn’t have a strong e-commerce presence.

The teen market is extremely competitive, highly cyclical and very trend driven. “If you lose your touch, your shoppers can desert you instantaneously,” said Stephen Selbst, the chair of the bankruptcy group at Herrick Feinstein.

Weakness in the retail sector is also being caused by stagnant consumer incomes, changing consumption patterns and the growth of e-commerce, according to Selbst.

The core shopper of big department stores such as Macy’s and J.C. Penney (JCP) are middle class women and middle class incomes have been stagnant for a generation, he said.

Clothing purchases made up between 5% and 6% of consumer expenditure a generation ago vs. only 3.5% before the Great Recession. That decline is continuing, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed that aggregate household spending on clothing has dropped almost 10% since 2005.

“There aren’t more dollars to go around,” Selbst said, but noted that the upper strata of the American consumer population is not being squeezed.

While retailers in the past have blamed sluggish results on a bad holiday season or unfavorable weather, he believes they are missing the bigger picture. “Consumption patterns are changing,” Selbst said.

The rise of Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart’s (WMT) Jet.com have accelerated the shift to shopping online. “The whole shopping experience has been radically changed,” he said.

As for the outlook of this year? Said Lopez-Castro, “2017 will be the year of retail bankruptcies.”

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